🚀 What’s the Launch Day Price for the Blum Token? Full Breakdown & Prediction
By ENILDIAR - 13/06/2025 - 0 comments
The Blum project is making waves in the crypto space with its strong community focus, massive user base, and an airdrop that’s generating major buzz. But the million-dollar question on everyone’s mind is: What will the Blum token be worth when it lists? This in-depth analysis dives into historical trends, tokenomics, market dynamics, and the role of Sybil farming to offer a data-driven forecast.
📌 Key Stats on the Blum Project:
-
🪙 Total Supply: 1,000,000,000 tokens
-
🎁 Airdrop Allocation: 20% (200 million tokens)
-
👥 Total Accounts: 9 million
-
⚖️ Distribution Type: Non-linear retrodrop based on user activity
📊 Airdrop Breakdown: How Much Will You Get?
1. Basic Average:
200,000,000 ÷ 9,000,000 = ~22.2 tokens per account — but the actual distribution will favor the most active users by a wide margin.
2. Tiered Distribution Model:
| Group | Users | Token Share | Avg. Reward |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Top 1% | 90,000 | 30% (60M) | ~666 tokens |
| 🧠 Top 2–10% | 720,000 | 50% (100M) | ~139 tokens |
| 🧱 Bottom 90% | 8,190,000 | 20% (40M) | ~4.9 tokens |
🔍 Why Focus on Ranks 10,000 to 100,000?
The top 10,000 users are typically:
- 💼 Ambassadors
- 📣 Influencers
- 🧪 Beta Testers
- 🧩 Special Program Members
These high-tier users often get bonus rewards outside of regular tokenomics. That’s why for a more accurate picture of typical active user rewards, we’re focusing on the 10,000 to 100,000 rank range.
Accounts below the top 100k generally receive symbolic rewards (1–5 tokens) and have little effect on the price action.
💎 Updated Token Estimate (10k–100k Range):
| 🏅 Rank | 🎯 Tokens | 💵 @ $0.5 | 💵 @ $1.0 | 💵 @ $1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 | ~725 | $362 | $725 | $1,088 |
| 25,000 | ~478 | $239 | $478 | $717 |
| 50,000 | ~312 | $156 | $312 | $468 |
| 75,000 | ~229 | $115 | $229 | $344 |
| 100,000 | ~180 | $90 | $180 | $270 |
📌 Estimated Avg. Reward: ~285 tokens = $142 to $428 depending on price
📈 Launch Price Predictions for Blum Token
🔍 Comparison with Similar Projects:
| Project | 🧮 Launch FDV | 🔄 Circulating Supply | 💰 Launch Price | 🚀 Peak Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbitrum | $13B | 12.75% of 10B | $1.2 | $1.8 |
| Optimism | $8B | 5% of 4.29B | $1.3 | $2.0 |
| ZkSync | $6B | 17.5% of 10B | $0.6 | $0.8 |
| Wormhole | $10B | 17% of 10B | $1.5 | $2.5 |
📊 Potential Price Scenarios:
-
📉 Base Case:
- FDV: $5B–$10B
- Price: $0.5 – $1.5
- Reason: Limited liquidity + strong demand
-
🚀 Bullish Case:
- Listed by major exchanges (Binance, Coinbase)
- Could reach $2–$3 with low circulating supply
-
🐻 Bear Case:
- Poor sentiment + weak market
- Price: $0.2 – $0.5
🔮 Final Price Estimate:
- Realistic Range: $0.75 – $1.2
- Pump Peak: up to $2.5
🧑💻 Sybil Farming Effect
Sybil users create multiple accounts to farm airdrops and distort fair distribution.
📚 Past Sybil Rates:
| Project | 🧟 Estimated Sybil Rate |
|---|---|
| Optimism | 15–20% |
| Arbitrum | 20–25% |
| ZkSync | 30–35% |
| Starknet | 35–40% |
| LayerZero | 40–50% |
🤖 Expected Impact on Blum:
- Weak anti-Sybil tools may result in 30–40% fake accounts
- That’s about 2.7M–3.6M out of 9M accounts
🔐 Detection Tools:
- ✅ Gitcoin Passport, BrightID
- 🌐 IP, device, and fingerprint tracking
- 🔍 On-chain behavior checks
- 🧠 AI + manual review
🧾 Launch Day Summary: What You Need to Know
| 📌 Metric | 📈 Estimate |
|---|---|
| Avg. Tokens per User | ~22 |
| Top 10k–100k Users | ~180–725 tokens |
| Launch Day Price | $0.75 – $1.2 |
| Max Pump Price | $2.5–3 |
| Avg. Airdrop Value (Active Users) | ~$285 |
| Estimated Sybil Rate | ~30–40% |
⚠️ Key Takeaway:
Important considerations:
- 80% of tokens are still locked 🔒
- Gradual unlock over the next 4 years ⏳
- The project’s main audience is in the CIS region 🇷🇺
- Initial liquidity could be tight 💸
👉 Best move: Sell your tokens within the first 5–10 hours of launch to catch the price spike.
Don’t get greedy — with limited liquidity, heavy Sybil activity, and low VC support, huge gains are unlikely. Stay smart. 🧠💵
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Tags: BLUM