๐ What Will the Price of Blum Token Be on Listing Day? A Complete Analysis and Forecast
By ENILDIAR - 13/06/2025 - 0 comments
The Blum project has created quite a stir in the crypto community with its innovative community engagement, massive user base, and potentially generous airdrop. However, the key question millions of users are asking is: What will the price of the Blum token be on listing day? This article offers a detailed expert analysis based on historical data, tokenomics, market behavior, and the impact of Sybil farming.
๐ Blum Project Key Data:
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๐ช Total token supply: 1,000,000,000 (1 billion)
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๐ Community airdrop: 20% (200,000,000 tokens)
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๐ฅ Number of accounts: 9,000,000
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โ๏ธ Distribution format: Non-linear retrodrop (based on activity)
๐ Analysis: How Many Tokens Will Users Receive?
1. Simple average:
200,000,0009,000,000โ22.2\frac{200,000,000}{9,000,000} \approx 22.2 tokens โ but in reality, the distribution will skew heavily toward the most active users.
2. Group-based distribution:
| Group | Users | Token share | Average reward |
|---|---|---|---|
| ๐ฅ Top 1% | 90,000 | 30% (60M) | ~666 tokens |
| ๐ง Top 2โ10% | 720,000 | 50% (100M) | ~139 tokens |
| ๐งฑ Bottom 90% | 8,190,000 | 20% (40M) | ~4.9 tokens |
๐ Why Focus on the 10,000 to 100,000 Rank Range?
Top 10,000 accounts are usually:
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๐ผ Ambassadors
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๐ฃ Influencers
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๐งช Testers
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๐งฉ Special program participants
These are elite users who often receive special bonuses beyond standard tokenomics. Therefore, to evaluate rewards for regular active users, we focus on the 10,000 to 100,000 rank range.
Below the 100,000 mark, users typically receive symbolic rewards (1โ5 tokens) and have minimal market impact.
๐ Updated Distribution Model (Ranks 10,000โ100,000):
| ๐ Rank | ๐ฏ Tokens | ๐ต At $0.5 | ๐ต At $1.0 | ๐ต At $1.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,000 | ~725 | ~$362 | ~$725 | ~$1,088 |
| 25,000 | ~478 | ~$239 | ~$478 | ~$717 |
| 50,000 | ~312 | ~$156 | ~$312 | ~$468 |
| 75,000 | ~229 | ~$115 | ~$229 | ~$344 |
| 100,000 | ~180 | ~$90 | ~$180 | ~$270 |
๐ Average value: ~285 tokens โ from $142 to $428 depending on market price
๐ Blum Token Price Forecast on Listing Day
๐ Similar Project Analysis:
| Project | ๐งฎ Launch FDV | ๐ Circulating Supply | ๐ฐ Initial Price | ๐ Peak Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arbitrum | $13B | 12.75% of 10B | ~$1.2 | ~$1.8 |
| Optimism | ~$8B | ~5% of 4.29B | ~$1.3 | ~$2.0 |
| ZkSync | ~$6B | ~17.5% of 10B | ~$0.6 | ~$0.8 |
| Wormhole | ~$10B | ~17% of 10B | ~$1.5 | ~$2.5 |
๐ Scenario Forecasts:
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๐ Base Case:
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FDV: $5โ10 billion
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Token price: $0.5 โ $1.5
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Reasoning: Limited liquidity, high demand
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๐ Pump Scenario:
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Backed by top exchanges (Binance, Coinbase)
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Price could reach $2โ3 with low unlocked token share
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๐ป Bearish Case:
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Weak interest, overall market decline
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Price: $0.2โ0.5
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๐ฎ Final Forecast:
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Realistic launch range: $0.75 โ $1.2
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Pump peak: up to $2.5
๐งโ๐ป Sybil Farmer Impact
Sybils are users with multiple accounts created to farm tokens. Their activity can significantly distort actual distribution.
๐ Historical Data:
| Project | ๐ง Estimated Sybil Rate |
|---|---|
| Optimism | ~15โ20% |
| Arbitrum | ~20โ25% |
| ZkSync | ~30โ35% |
| Starknet | ~35โ40% |
| LayerZero | ~40โ50% |
๐ค Forecast for Blum:
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With weak Sybil defenses: 30โ40% of accounts may be Sybils
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Thatโs 2.7โ3.6 million out of 9 million
๐ Filtering Techniques:
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โ Gitcoin Passport, BrightID
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๐ IP, device, fingerprint checks
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๐ On-chain activity analysis
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๐ง Manual moderation + AI clustering
๐งพ Final Takeaways: What to Expect on Listing Day
| ๐ Metric | ๐ Value |
|---|---|
| Avg. tokens per user (all accounts) | ~22 |
| ๐ Top 10kโ100k participants | ~180โ725 tokens |
| ๐ต Launch day price forecast | $0.75 โ $1.2 |
| ๐ Possible pump peak | up to $2.5โ3 |
| ๐ฐ Avg. reward in $ (active users) | ~$285 |
| ๐ง Sybil account share | ~30โ40% |
โ ๏ธ Final Insight:
Considering:
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80% of tokens remain with the project ๐
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Unlocks happen gradually over 4 years โณ
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The project is mainly focused on the CIS region ๐ท๐บ
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๐ธ Initial liquidity may be limited
๐ Best strategy: sell tokens on day one, within the first 5โ10 hours during the price pump.
Don't expect massive Xs: Sybil pressure, low liquidity, and weak venture support will likely cap growth. Donโt let greed override logic. ๐ง ๐ต
๐ข Follow for updates and stay tuned for more Blum news!
Tags: BLUM